Not All Climate Shocks are Negative: Traditional Ranchers in Arid Ecosystems Benefit from Seasonal Monsoons

Tropical cyclones are considered one of the world’s most destructive ecological shocks, causing substantial damage especially in urban areas located in humid regions. However, for the world’s arid ecosystems that experience seasonal monsoon rain events, tropical cyclones represent an important source of freshwater that support ecosystem functioning. For subsistence populations living in these regions, it is unclear whether they perceive seasonal monsoon events as positive or negative ecological shocks, despite the damage that might occur. Here, we assess these phenomena with traditional ranchers from Baja California Sur, Mexico, following Hurricane Kay (September 2022). We find that despite significant damage caused by the hurricane, nearly the entire sample perceived this tropical cyclone event as a net positive on their lives. This traditional ranching population has a culture that is adapted to seasonal monsoon rain events, and expects multiple hurricanes annually to support ecosystem functioning, and therefore their economic livelihoods. The negative ecological shock is not when the hurricanes come, but rather, when hurricanes do not come. We situate our results within the context of increasing aridity and probability of drought in the North American Arid West.